10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 216.59 · S2 214.42 · S3 212.34 · S4 220.72
④ Position
70% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (217-242), entry at R1 242, target mid 229, stop 251
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 241.80 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 216.59, stop 246.64
- IF 失守 216.59 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 214.42 → 213.34
- IF 突破 246.64 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 253.89 → 301.00
- IF 跌穿 220.72 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
241.80
Target
229.19
Stop
251.11
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.85%
Reward
+5.21%
R:R
1.35 : 1
Backtest 197d
57% win (n=7) · +0.3%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 301.00
- R1 (today high)
- 241.80
- Last
- 234.19
- S1 KEY
- 216.59
- S3
- 212.34
- S4 (crash)
- 220.72
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.