10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 291.46 · S2 288.55 · S3 213.83 · S4 159.90
④ Position
80% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (291-353), entry at R1 353, target mid 322, stop 369
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 353.00 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 291.46, stop 360.06
- IF 失守 291.46 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 288.55 → 287.09
- IF 突破 360.06 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 370.65 → 263.75
- IF 跌穿 159.90 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
353.00
Target
322.23
Stop
369.31
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.62%
Reward
+8.72%
R:R
1.89 : 1
Backtest 197d
52% win (n=42) · +4.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 263.75
- R1 (today high)
- 353.00
- Last
- 340.41
- S1 KEY
- 291.46
- S3
- 213.83
- S4 (crash)
- 159.90
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.