10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 297.38 · S2 294.41 · S3 337.24 · S4 382.78
④ Position
76% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (297-366), entry at R1 366, target mid 332, stop 385
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 366.50 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 297.38, stop 373.83
- IF 失守 297.38 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 294.41 → 292.92
- IF 突破 373.83 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 384.82 → 453.40
- IF 跌穿 382.78 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
366.50
Target
331.94
Stop
385.37
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+5.15%
Reward
+9.43%
R:R
1.83 : 1
Backtest 90d
46% win (n=13) · +8.3%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 453.40
- R1 (today high)
- 366.50
- Last
- 350.25
- S1 KEY
- 297.38
- S3
- 337.24
- S4 (crash)
- 382.78
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.