10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 200.31 · S2 198.31 · S3 153.58 · S4 127.16
④ Position
78% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (200-247), entry at R1 247, target mid 224, stop 258
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 246.95 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 200.31, stop 251.89
- IF 失守 200.31 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 198.31 → 197.31
- IF 突破 251.89 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 259.30 → 190.61
- IF 跌穿 127.16 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
246.95
Target
223.63
Stop
258.14
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.53%
Reward
+9.44%
R:R
2.08 : 1
Backtest 197d
40% win (n=43) · +0.7%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 190.61
- R1 (today high)
- 246.95
- Last
- 236.90
- S1 KEY
- 200.31
- S3
- 153.58
- S4 (crash)
- 127.16
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.