10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 203.18 · S2 201.15 · S3 189.20 · S4 197.92
④ Position
88% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (203-225), entry at R1 225, target mid 214, stop 232
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 224.73 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 203.18, stop 229.22
- IF 失守 203.18 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 201.15 → 200.13
- IF 突破 229.22 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 235.97 → 213.24
- IF 跌穿 197.92 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
224.73
Target
213.95
Stop
232.00
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.23%
Reward
+4.79%
R:R
1.48 : 1
Backtest 90d
50% win (n=10) · +1.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 213.24
- R1 (today high)
- 224.73
- Last
- 222.09
- S1 KEY
- 203.18
- S3
- 189.20
- S4 (crash)
- 197.92
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.