10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 136.73 · S2 135.36 · S3 143.55 · S4 136.01
④ Position
60% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (137-146), entry at R1 146, target mid 141, stop 150
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 145.90 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 136.73, stop 148.82
- IF 失守 136.73 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 135.36 → 134.68
- IF 突破 148.82 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 153.20 → 163.40
- IF 跌穿 136.01 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
145.90
Target
141.31
Stop
149.51
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.47%
Reward
+3.14%
R:R
1.27 : 1
Backtest 60d
50% win (n=8) · +0.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 163.40
- R1 (today high)
- 145.90
- Last
- 142.27
- S1 KEY
- 136.73
- S3
- 143.55
- S4 (crash)
- 136.01
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.