10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 140.20 · S2 138.80 · S3 140.09 · S4 137.62
④ Position
63% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (140-148), entry at R1 148, target mid 144, stop 152
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 148.50 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 140.20, stop 151.47
- IF 失守 140.20 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 138.80 → 138.10
- IF 突破 151.47 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 155.93 → 157.15
- IF 跌穿 137.62 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
148.50
Target
144.35
Stop
151.95
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.32%
Reward
+2.79%
R:R
1.20 : 1
Backtest 90d
60% win (n=10) · +4.8%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 157.15
- R1 (today high)
- 148.50
- Last
- 145.40
- S1 KEY
- 140.20
- S3
- 140.09
- S4 (crash)
- 137.62
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.