10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 141.05 · S2 139.64 · S3 112.69 · S4 83.44
④ Position
76% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (141-171), entry at R1 171, target mid 156, stop 179
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 170.75 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 141.05, stop 174.16
- IF 失守 141.05 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 139.64 → 138.93
- IF 突破 174.16 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 179.29 → 133.10
- IF 跌穿 83.44 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
170.75
Target
155.90
Stop
179.31
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+5.02%
Reward
+8.70%
R:R
1.73 : 1
Backtest 197d
60% win (n=5) · +0.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 133.10
- R1 (today high)
- 170.75
- Last
- 163.47
- S1 KEY
- 141.05
- S3
- 112.69
- S4 (crash)
- 83.44
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.