10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 250.50 · S2 248.00 · S3 194.08 · S4 135.50
④ Position
68% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (250-345), entry at R1 345, target mid 298, stop 372
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 345.28 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 250.50, stop 352.19
- IF 失守 250.50 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 248.00 → 246.74
- IF 突破 352.19 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 362.54 → 333.33
- IF 跌穿 135.50 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
345.28
Target
297.89
Stop
371.91
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+7.71%
Reward
+13.73%
R:R
1.78 : 1
Backtest 90d
60% win (n=5) · +0.8%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 333.33
- R1 (today high)
- 345.28
- Last
- 314.66
- S1 KEY
- 250.50
- S3
- 194.08
- S4 (crash)
- 135.50
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.