10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 162.90 · S2 161.27 · S3 75.24 · S4 70.69
④ Position
86% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
WAIT
⑥ Notes
WAIT_VOLATILE: ATR14 7.1% / box width 37% — 波動太大（thresholds: ATR≥6% 或 box≥35%），range mean-reversion 暫停，等波動收窄先再睇。
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 252.52 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 162.90, stop 257.57
- IF 失守 162.90 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 161.27 → 160.46
- IF 突破 257.57 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 265.15 → 218.26
- IF 跌穿 70.69 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan WAIT
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
WAIT_VOLATILE
Trigger
—
Target
—
Stop
—
Phase match
✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk
+0.00%
Reward
+0.00%
R:R
0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d
64% win (n=11) · +0.5%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 218.26
- R1 (today high)
- 252.52
- Last
- 240.38
- S1 KEY
- 162.90
- S3
- 75.24
- S4 (crash)
- 70.69
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.