10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 94.46 · S2 93.52 · S3 92.19 · S4 101.02
④ Position
96% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (94-112), entry at R1 112, target mid 103, stop 115
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 111.87 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 94.46, stop 114.11
- IF 失守 94.46 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 93.52 → 93.04
- IF 突破 114.11 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 117.46 → 110.48
- IF 跌穿 101.02 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
111.87
Target
103.17
Stop
115.26
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.03%
Reward
+7.78%
R:R
2.57 : 1
Backtest 90d
47% win (n=17) · +1.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 110.48
- R1 (today high)
- 111.87
- Last
- 111.25
- S1 KEY
- 94.46
- S3
- 92.19
- S4 (crash)
- 101.02
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.