10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 19.90 · S2 19.70 · S3 22.47 · S4 25.91
④ Position
84% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (20-25), entry at R1 25, target mid 22, stop 27
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 25.06 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 19.90, stop 25.56
- IF 失守 19.90 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 19.70 → 19.60
- IF 突破 25.56 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 26.31 → 33.53
- IF 跌穿 25.91 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
25.06
Target
22.48
Stop
26.71
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+6.59%
Reward
+10.30%
R:R
1.56 : 1
Backtest 90d
59% win (n=17) · +3.9%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 33.53
- R1 (today high)
- 25.06
- Last
- 24.22
- S1 KEY
- 19.90
- S3
- 22.47
- S4 (crash)
- 25.91
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.