10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 7.09 · S2 7.02 · S3 5.97 · S4 5.65
④ Position
68% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (7-8), entry at R1 8, target mid 7, stop 8
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 7.66 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 7.09, stop 7.81
- IF 失守 7.09 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 7.02 → 6.98
- IF 突破 7.81 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 8.04 → 7.13
- IF 跌穿 5.65 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
7.66
Target
7.38
Stop
7.85
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.50%
Reward
+3.72%
R:R
1.49 : 1
Backtest 90d
64% win (n=11) · +2.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 7.13
- R1 (today high)
- 7.66
- Last
- 7.47
- S1 KEY
- 7.09
- S3
- 5.97
- S4 (crash)
- 5.65
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.