10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 25.40 · S2 25.15 · S3 26.60 · S4 21.87
④ Position
98% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (25-29), entry at R1 29, target mid 27, stop 30
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 28.98 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 25.40, stop 29.56
- IF 失守 25.40 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 25.15 → 25.02
- IF 突破 29.56 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 30.43 → 28.00
- IF 跌穿 21.87 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
28.98
Target
27.19
Stop
29.66
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.36%
Reward
+6.18%
R:R
2.62 : 1
Backtest 60d
71% win (n=7) · +5.5%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 28.00
- R1 (today high)
- 28.98
- Last
- 28.90
- S1 KEY
- 25.40
- S3
- 26.60
- S4 (crash)
- 21.87
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.