10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 14.88 · S2 14.73 · S3 14.92 · S4 16.80
④ Position
93% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (15-19), entry at R1 19, target mid 17, stop 20
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 19.17 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 14.88, stop 19.55
- IF 失守 14.88 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 14.73 → 14.66
- IF 突破 19.55 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 20.13 → 20.13
- IF 跌穿 16.80 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
19.17
Target
17.03
Stop
20.32
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+6.00%
Reward
+11.19%
R:R
1.87 : 1
Backtest 60d
67% win (n=6) · +5.5%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 20.13
- R1 (today high)
- 19.17
- Last
- 18.86
- S1 KEY
- 14.88
- S3
- 14.92
- S4 (crash)
- 16.80
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.