10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 284.79 · S2 281.94 · S3 231.72 · S4 216.32
④ Position
94% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (285-311), entry at R1 311, target mid 298, stop 320
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 311.23 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 284.79, stop 317.45
- IF 失守 284.79 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 281.94 → 280.52
- IF 突破 317.45 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 326.79 → 279.70
- IF 跌穿 216.32 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
311.23
Target
298.01
Stop
319.66
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.71%
Reward
+4.25%
R:R
1.57 : 1
Backtest 90d
60% win (n=5) · +4.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 279.70
- R1 (today high)
- 311.23
- Last
- 309.59
- S1 KEY
- 284.79
- S3
- 231.72
- S4 (crash)
- 216.32
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.