10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 66.74 · S2 66.07 · S3 68.46 · S4 69.02
④ Position
100% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (67-80), entry at R1 80, target mid 74, stop 85
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 80.42 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 66.74, stop 82.03
- IF 失守 66.74 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 66.07 → 65.74
- IF 突破 82.03 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 84.44 → 80.83
- IF 跌穿 69.02 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
80.42
Target
73.58
Stop
84.57
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+5.17%
Reward
+8.51%
R:R
1.64 : 1
Backtest 90d
55% win (n=11) · +1.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 80.83
- R1 (today high)
- 80.42
- Last
- 80.35
- S1 KEY
- 66.74
- S3
- 68.46
- S4 (crash)
- 69.02
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.