10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 370.20 · S2 366.50 · S3 379.50 · S4 376.18
④ Position
69% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (370-426), entry at R1 426, target mid 398, stop 443
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 425.78 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 370.20, stop 434.30
- IF 失守 370.20 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 366.50 → 364.65
- IF 突破 434.30 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 447.07 → 539.48
- IF 跌穿 376.18 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
425.78
Target
397.99
Stop
442.89
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.02%
Reward
+6.53%
R:R
1.62 : 1
Backtest 60d
56% win (n=9) · +3.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 539.48
- R1 (today high)
- 425.78
- Last
- 408.79
- S1 KEY
- 370.20
- S3
- 379.50
- S4 (crash)
- 376.18
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.