10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 116.20 · S2 115.04 · S3 134.57 · S4 135.25
④ Position
66% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (116-159), entry at R1 159, target mid 138, stop 170
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 159.26 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 116.20, stop 162.45
- IF 失守 116.20 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 115.04 → 114.46
- IF 突破 162.45 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 167.22 → 226.29
- IF 跌穿 135.25 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
159.26
Target
137.73
Stop
169.68
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+6.54%
Reward
+13.52%
R:R
2.07 : 1
Backtest 90d
50% win (n=6) · +2.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 226.29
- R1 (today high)
- 159.26
- Last
- 144.76
- S1 KEY
- 116.20
- S3
- 134.57
- S4 (crash)
- 135.25
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.