10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 1,109.15 · S2 1,098.06 · S3 850.51 · S4 900.90
④ Position
68% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (1109-1293), entry at R1 1293, target mid 1201, stop 1357
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 1,292.65 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 1,109.15, stop 1,318.50
- IF 失守 1,109.15 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 1,098.06 → 1,092.51
- IF 突破 1,318.50 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 1,357.28 → 1,149.10
- IF 跌穿 900.90 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
1,292.65
Target
1,200.90
Stop
1,356.83
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.96%
Reward
+7.10%
R:R
1.43 : 1
Backtest 60d
60% win (n=5) · +5.7%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 1,149.10
- R1 (today high)
- 1,292.65
- Last
- 1,233.66
- S1 KEY
- 1,109.15
- S3
- 850.51
- S4 (crash)
- 900.90
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.