10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 42.55 · S2 42.12 · S3 48.13 · S4 71.83
④ Position
67% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (43-53), entry at R1 53, target mid 48, stop 56
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 52.99 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 42.55, stop 54.05
- IF 失守 42.55 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 42.12 → 41.91
- IF 突破 54.05 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 55.64 → 73.13
- IF 跌穿 71.83 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
52.99
Target
47.77
Stop
55.59
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.91%
Reward
+9.85%
R:R
2.01 : 1
Backtest 197d
60% win (n=5) · +1.9%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 73.13
- R1 (today high)
- 52.99
- Last
- 49.52
- S1 KEY
- 42.55
- S3
- 48.13
- S4 (crash)
- 71.83
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.