10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 63.26 · S2 62.63 · S3 67.12 · S4 67.12
④ Position
84% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (63-69), entry at R1 69, target mid 66, stop 71
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 69.05 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 63.26, stop 70.43
- IF 失守 63.26 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 62.63 → 62.31
- IF 突破 70.43 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 72.50 → 70.61
- IF 跌穿 67.12 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
69.05
Target
66.15
Stop
71.37
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.36%
Reward
+4.19%
R:R
1.25 : 1
Backtest 60d
43% win (n=7) · +0.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 70.61
- R1 (today high)
- 69.05
- Last
- 68.14
- S1 KEY
- 63.26
- S3
- 67.12
- S4 (crash)
- 67.12
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.