10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 27.68 · S2 27.40 · S3 27.32 · S4 30.10
④ Position
62% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
WAIT
⑥ Notes
WAIT_VOLATILE: ATR14 7.9% / box width 36% — 波動太大（thresholds: ATR≥6% 或 box≥35%），range mean-reversion 暫停，等波動收窄先再睇。
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 40.64 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 27.68, stop 41.45
- IF 失守 27.68 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 27.40 → 27.26
- IF 突破 41.45 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 42.67 → 63.80
- IF 跌穿 30.10 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan WAIT
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
WAIT_VOLATILE
Trigger
—
Target
—
Stop
—
Phase match
✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk
+0.00%
Reward
+0.00%
R:R
0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d
44% win (n=16) · +0.8%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 63.80
- R1 (today high)
- 40.64
- Last
- 35.68
- S1 KEY
- 27.68
- S3
- 27.32
- S4 (crash)
- 30.10
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.