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03908.HK 20.60 -0.58%

CICC · BUY_S1 · 75% win (90d, n=12) · +5.1% · Phase: Base building

Phase: Base building Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN · BUY_S1 edge Reliability: HIGH

註:Backtest win% 係「BUY_S1」策略喺過去 90 日嘅歷史表現(edge), 唔等於今日 WAIT 嘅預測成功率;今日決策以下方 Action Plan 為準。

03908.HK daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Base building
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 20.34 · S2 20.14 · S3 16.65 · S4 18.53
④ Position 13% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN: stop 已加闊到 1.5×ATR 但 R:R 唔夠 — 等更好嘅位置先入場。 | rr_floor: stop 加闊到 1.5×ATR 後 R:R < 1.2,賠率唔夠,降級 WAIT。等價格更近 trigger 或者波動收窄先再睇。

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 22.32 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry,target 20.34, stop 22.77
  • IF 失守 20.34 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation,target 20.14 → 20.03
  • IF 突破 22.77 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 23.44 → 21.66
  • IF 跌穿 18.53 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1
Backtest 90d 75% win (n=12) · +5.1%

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
21.66
R1 (today high)
22.32
Last
20.60
S1 KEY
20.34
S3
16.65
S4 (crash)
18.53
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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