10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 123.00 · S2 121.77 · S3 111.10 · S4 104.10
④ Position
70% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
WAIT
⑥ Notes
WAIT_VOLATILE: ATR14 6.8% / box width 34% — 波動太大（thresholds: ATR≥6% 或 box≥35%），range mean-reversion 暫停，等波動收窄先再睇。
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 178.10 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 123.00, stop 181.66
- IF 失守 123.00 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 121.77 → 121.16
- IF 突破 181.66 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 187.00 → 252.00
- IF 跌穿 104.10 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan WAIT
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
WAIT_VOLATILE
Trigger
—
Target
—
Stop
—
Phase match
✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk
+0.00%
Reward
+0.00%
R:R
0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d
45% win (n=22) · +18.8%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 252.00
- R1 (today high)
- 178.10
- Last
- 161.80
- S1 KEY
- 123.00
- S3
- 111.10
- S4 (crash)
- 104.10
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.