10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend recovery
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 47.06 · S2 46.59 · S3 58.60 · S4 61.15
④ Position
26% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
BUY
⑥ Notes
BUY_S1: in box (47-56), entry at S1 47, target mid 52, stop 46
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 56.10 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 47.06, stop 57.22
- IF 失守 47.06 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 46.59 → 46.35
- IF 突破 57.22 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 58.91 → 78.90
- IF 跌穿 61.15 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan BUY
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
BUY_S1
Trigger
47.06
Target
51.58
Stop
46.12
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+9.60%
R:R
4.80 : 1
Backtest 197d
50% win (n=10) · +1.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 78.90
- R1 (today high)
- 56.10
- Last
- 49.46
- S1 KEY
- 47.06
- S3
- 58.60
- S4 (crash)
- 61.15
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.