10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 19.39 · S2 19.20 · S3 20.74 · S4 17.59
④ Position
93% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (19-24), entry at R1 24, target mid 22, stop 26
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 24.26 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 19.39, stop 24.75
- IF 失守 19.39 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 19.20 → 19.10
- IF 突破 24.75 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 25.47 → 31.76
- IF 跌穿 17.59 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
24.26
Target
21.83
Stop
26.14
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+7.73%
Reward
+10.04%
R:R
1.30 : 1
Backtest 90d
60% win (n=5) · +17.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 31.76
- R1 (today high)
- 24.26
- Last
- 23.92
- S1 KEY
- 19.39
- S3
- 20.74
- S4 (crash)
- 17.59
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.