10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 11.95 · S2 11.83 · S3 14.05 · S4 13.10
④ Position
60% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
WAIT
⑥ Notes
WAIT_VOLATILE: ATR14 6.3% / box width 37% — 波動太大（thresholds: ATR≥6% 或 box≥35%），range mean-reversion 暫停，等波動收窄先再睇。
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 17.68 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 11.95, stop 18.03
- IF 失守 11.95 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 11.83 → 11.77
- IF 突破 18.03 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 18.56 → 24.68
- IF 跌穿 13.10 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan WAIT
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
WAIT_VOLATILE
Trigger
—
Target
—
Stop
—
Phase match
✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk
+0.00%
Reward
+0.00%
R:R
0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d
33% win (n=21) · +5.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 24.68
- R1 (today high)
- 17.68
- Last
- 15.40
- S1 KEY
- 11.95
- S3
- 14.05
- S4 (crash)
- 13.10
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.