10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 8.67 · S2 8.58 · S3 7.47 · S4 7.14
④ Position
74% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (9-9), entry at R1 9, target mid 9, stop 10
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 9.36 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 8.67, stop 9.55
- IF 失守 8.67 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 8.58 → 8.54
- IF 突破 9.55 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 9.83 → 8.82
- IF 跌穿 7.14 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
9.36
Target
9.02
Stop
9.62
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.74%
Reward
+3.69%
R:R
1.34 : 1
Backtest 197d
52% win (n=27) · +0.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 8.82
- R1 (today high)
- 9.36
- Last
- 9.18
- S1 KEY
- 8.67
- S3
- 7.47
- S4 (crash)
- 7.14
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.